The Implied Move Before Earnings, Explained
The implied move (or “expected move”) is the size of the price swing the options market has already baked in ahead of an earnings report. It is the single most useful number for judging an earnings option trade, because it is the bar the stock has to clear before a long option pays off.
What the implied move actually measures
The implied move is a one-standard-deviation estimate of how far the stock could travel — up or down — by the time the nearest options expire after the report. A “±7%” implied move on a $100 stock means the options market thinks there's roughly a two-in-three chance the stock lands between $93 and $107 after earnings. It says nothing about direction — only magnitude.
Where the number comes from
It's read straight out of option prices. The quickest approximation is the at-the-money straddle — the combined price of the at-the-money call plus the at-the-money put for the expiration just after earnings. Because a straddle profits from a move in either direction, its price is the market's dollar estimate of the coming swing. Divide by the stock price to get the percentage. The full math is in how to calculate the expected move.
How to read it before a trade
Treat the implied move as a hurdle. If you buy a call and the stock rises less than the implied move, you can still lose — the option was priced for a bigger swing, and IV crush takes the rest. A useful gut check: is the move you expect larger than what's already priced in? If not, a long option is the wrong structure. tickerseer's weekly earnings preview pairs the reporting calendar with each name's valuation verdict, so you can weigh the priced-in move against whether the stock is rich or cheap going in.