Home / Stocks / MPC

Marathon Petroleum (MPC, Refiners & fuel sellers) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Weak on forward returns

Marathon Petroleum (MPC, Refiners & fuel sellers) trades at a current P/E of 8.8, about 26% below its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of -24.8%. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 9% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 11.8 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-09 close of $455.03 corresponds to about $611 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-12
Current P/E
8.8
Normal P/E
11.8
PEG
—
Fwd growth
-24.8%
Div yield
0.9%
RSI (14)
74.5
Overbought
Technical context
  • Price $458.81 at the 2026-10-12 close, 10.0% above the 20-day average ($417.06) and 20.2% above the 50-day ($381.60).
  • RSI (14) at 74.5.
  • 52-week range $160.76 to $463.34: the price is 1.0% below the high and 185.4% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for MPC is $400.00 across 18 analysts, 12.8% below the current price. The average analyst rating is Buy. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: weak on forward returns. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has not changed since 2026-06-03, but its reason has: it read trading above its usual valuation then and reads weak on forward returns now.

Current P/E and rating by weekCurrent P/E moved from 14.9 to 8.8 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-09, against a normal P/E of 11.8, with 6 rating changes over 39 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 14.9, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 15.1, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 16.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 16.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 16.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 16.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 16.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 16.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 16.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 16.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 16.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 16.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 13.2, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 11.7, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 11.7, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 11.6, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 11.7, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 9.1, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 9.0, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 10.2, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 10.2, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 9.9, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 9.9, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 9.9, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 9.8, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 9.9, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 9.9, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 10.1, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 10.1, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 9.8, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 9.8, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 9.8, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 9.8, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 8.9, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 8.9, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 9.1, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 9.1, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-052026-10-09: P/E 8.8, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-102026-10-09: P/E 8.8, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-1210.012.515.0Jun 3Jul 5Aug 6Sep 7Oct 9Normal P/E 11.8
Mixed on our testsTrading above its usual valuationWeak on forward returnsSignificantly overvaluedPoor on forward returnsLarger dot: a stronger reading

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated are worked out from the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, every week the rating moved, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekCurrent P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 14.9+26%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 13.2+12%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 11.7-2%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 11.6-2%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-05P/E 10.1-14%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-12P/E 9.8-17%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-10P/E 8.8-26%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-12P/E 8.8-26%Weak on forward returns ← now
Show all 39 weeks
WeekCurrent P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 14.9+26%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 15.1+28%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 16.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 13.2+12%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 11.7-2%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 11.7-2%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 11.6-2%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 11.7-1%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-07P/E 9.1-24%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 9.0-24%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-14P/E 10.2-14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 10.2-14%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-21P/E 9.9-16%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 9.9-16%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-27P/E 9.9-16%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 9.8-17%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 9.9-16%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 9.9-16%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 10.1-14%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 10.1-14%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-12P/E 9.8-17%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 9.8-17%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-19P/E 9.8-17%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 9.8-17%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-26P/E 8.9-25%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 8.9-25%Weak on forward returns
2026-10-03P/E 9.1-23%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 9.1-23%Weak on forward returns
2026-10-10P/E 8.8-26%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-12P/E 8.8-26%Weak on forward returns ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is Marathon Petroleum stock overvalued?

At a current P/E of 8.8 versus its historical normal P/E of 11.8, Marathon Petroleum trades about 26% below its typical valuation. tickerseer currently rates it weak on forward returns.

What is Marathon Petroleum's fair value and PEG?

Marathon Petroleum trades at a current P/E of 8.8 against a historical normal P/E of 11.8, a forward growth estimate of -24.8%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 11.8 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-09 close of $455.03 corresponds to about $611 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Marathon Petroleum changed?

tickerseer's rating has not changed since 2026-06-03, but its reason has: it read trading above its usual valuation then and reads weak on forward returns now.

What is the analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum?

The mean Wall Street price target for Marathon Petroleum is $400.00 across 18 analysts, 12.8% below the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Refiners & fuel sellers. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

See the full analysis →🔔 Track MPC free: valuation & earnings alerts

Get the free weekly earnings preview

One email each Monday with the week's named earnings setups, the reasoning, and what settled last week. Strikes and sizing stay in Premium.

It's free, and you can unsubscribe any time. We also send a short product update once a month. Educational content, not investment advice.