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Texas Pacific Land (TPL, Oil & gas producers) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Poor on forward returns

Texas Pacific Land (TPL, Oil & gas producers) trades at a current P/E of 41.1, about 15% above its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 14.2% and a PEG of 2.90. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 40% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 35.9 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-09 close of $360.98 corresponds to about $315 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

No quality score is published for this company, which is normal for insurers, banks and REITs. This rating reflects valuation and forecast return, and for the top ratings, credit rating, growth and analyst accuracy.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-12
Current P/E
41.1
Normal P/E
35.9
PEG
2.90
Fwd growth
14.2%
Div yield
0.7%
RSI (14)
56.0
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $365.32 at the 2026-10-12 close, 5.0% above the 20-day average ($347.81) and 1.6% above the 50-day ($359.73).
  • RSI (14) at 56.0.
  • 52-week range $272.40 to $538.10: the price is 32.1% below the high and 34.1% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for TPL is $443.00 across 2 analysts, 21.3% above the current price. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: poor on forward returns. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has not changed since 2026-06-03, but its reason has: it read significantly overvalued then and reads poor on forward returns now.

Current P/E and rating by weekCurrent P/E moved from 51.2 to 41.1 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-09, against a normal P/E of 35.9, with 0 rating changes over 39 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 51.2, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 49.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 49.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 49.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 49.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 51.5, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 50.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 50.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 50.3, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 50.3, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 50.3, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 52.7, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 52.7, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 53.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 53.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 49.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 50.6, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 44.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 42.7, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 43.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 44.6, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 45.4, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 47.1, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 47.1, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 45.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 44.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 44.6, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 44.1, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 44.1, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 44.8, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 44.8, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 40.8, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 40.8, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 39.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 39.3, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 39.0, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 39.0, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-052026-10-09: P/E 41.1, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-102026-10-09: P/E 41.1, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-1240.045.050.0Jun 3Jul 5Aug 6Sep 7Oct 9Normal P/E 35.9
Significantly overvaluedPoor on forward returns

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated are worked out from the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekCurrent P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 51.2+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 53.0+48%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-10-03P/E 39.0+9%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-12P/E 41.1+15%Poor on forward returns ← now
Show all 39 weeks
WeekCurrent P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 51.2+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 49.3+37%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 49.3+37%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 49.3+37%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 49.3+37%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 51.5+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 50.4+41%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 50.4+41%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 50.3+40%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 50.3+40%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 50.3+40%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 52.7+47%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 52.7+47%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 53.0+48%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 53.0+48%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 49.6+38%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 50.6+41%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-07P/E 44.6+24%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 42.7+19%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-14P/E 43.3+21%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 44.6+24%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-21P/E 45.4+27%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 47.1+31%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-27P/E 47.1+31%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 45.3+26%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 44.6+24%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 44.6+24%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 44.1+23%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 44.1+23%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-12P/E 44.8+25%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 44.8+25%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-19P/E 40.8+14%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 40.8+14%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-26P/E 39.3+9%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 39.3+9%Poor on forward returns
2026-10-03P/E 39.0+9%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 39.0+9%Poor on forward returns
2026-10-10P/E 41.1+15%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-12P/E 41.1+15%Poor on forward returns ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is Texas Pacific Land stock overvalued?

At a current P/E of 41.1 versus its historical normal P/E of 35.9, Texas Pacific Land trades about 15% above its typical valuation, with a PEG of 2.90 on 14.2% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it poor on forward returns.

What is Texas Pacific Land's fair value and PEG?

Texas Pacific Land trades at a current P/E of 41.1 against a historical normal P/E of 35.9, a PEG of 2.90, and a forward growth estimate of 14.2%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 35.9 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-09 close of $360.98 corresponds to about $315 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Texas Pacific Land changed?

tickerseer's rating has not changed since 2026-06-03, but its reason has: it read significantly overvalued then and reads poor on forward returns now.

What is the analyst price target for Texas Pacific Land?

The mean Wall Street price target for Texas Pacific Land is $443.00 across 2 analysts, 21.3% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Oil & gas producers. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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