Market Studies

Studies built from the public record: how events affect prices, what was knowable before major market moves, and which signals held up when tested. The collection includes literature reviews, retrospective studies and a ratings scoreboard with a live, recorded lane. Each study explains its evidence and limits. For single-concept guides, see Learn.

These studies start as an AI draft, then the author directs and reviews them before publication.

The structure that cost us most, and why stopping it was not enough

For 3 weeks tickerseer used one options structure on 46.7% of its calls. It produced 48.7% of every loss on the public ledger.

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Should catalysts and smart money change a stock rating?

How earnings, insider purchases, activist stakes and options activity affect short-term prices, and when new evidence should change a stock rating.

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Did the stock ratings work? The first scoreboard

Every stock rating in the tickerseer ledger, scored against what prices did next. Strong Buy beat Avoid in all 23 snapshots, live and backtest alike.

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What portfolio protection costs, and why volatility cannot time it

A study of 100,469 one-year put entries across 435 stocks and funds. Insuring an index cost about 4% a year, and volatility could not time it.

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Buying long-dated calls when volatility is cheap: what 38,570 entries show

A study of 38,570 one-year call entries across 419 stocks and 15 years. Buying when a stock's own volatility was cheap picked the worst decile.

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Can stock market crashes be predicted? What 50 years of macro shocks actually show

A retrospective study of 14 US market shocks from 1979 to 2026: what was knowable before each crash, which indicators failed, and what is measurable.

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Can a market fragility score pick better stocks? We measured it and built nothing

We tried to make a market fragility score change which stocks our rankings favor. It could not be calibrated on any data we could get. The measurements.

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