Market Studies
Long-horizon studies built from the public record: what was actually knowable before major market events, which signals held up when they were tested, and which ones cried wolf. Every study is a retrospective read of historical data, and every study lists its misses next to its hits. For single-concept guides, see Learn.
These studies start as an AI draft, then the author directs and reviews them before publication.
A study of 100,469 one-year put entries across 435 stocks and funds. Insuring an index cost about 4% a year, and volatility could not time it.
A study of 38,570 one-year call entries across 419 stocks and 15 years. Buying when a stock's own volatility was cheap picked the worst decile.
A retrospective study of 14 US market shocks from 1979 to 2026: what was knowable before each crash, which indicators failed, and what is measurable.