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Fastenal (FAST, Trading Companies & Distributors) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Poor on forward returns

Fastenal (FAST, Trading Companies & Distributors) trades at a blended P/E of 41.4, about 37% above its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 10.1% and a PEG of 4.10. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 91% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 30.2 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $50.75 corresponds to about $37.00 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
41.4
Normal P/E
30.2
PEG
4.10
Fwd growth
10.1%
Div yield
2.0%
RSI (14)
53.9
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $50.49 at the 2026-10-08 close, 1.0% above the 20-day average ($50.00) and 0.8% above the 50-day ($50.11).
  • RSI (14) at 53.9.
  • 52-week range $38.52 to $52.38: the price is 3.6% below the high and 31.1% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for FAST is $48.84 across 13 analysts, 3.3% below the current price. The average analyst rating is Hold. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: poor on forward returns. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has been poor on forward returns since 2026-06-03.

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 38.9 to 41.4 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 30.2, with 0 rating changes over 37 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 38.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 40.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 40.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 40.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 40.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 40.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 41.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 41.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 39.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 39.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 39.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 38.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 38.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 39.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 39.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 39.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 40.1, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 42.5, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 43.3, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 42.8, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 42.5, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 42.1, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 42.6, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 42.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 42.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 41.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 41.2, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 40.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 40.9, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 40.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 40.6, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 40.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 40.2, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 41.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 41.3, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 41.4, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 41.4, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-0535.040.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 30.2
Poor on forward returnsSignificantly overvalued

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 38.9+29%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 38.5+28%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 43.3+44%Significantly overvalued
2026-10-05P/E 41.4+37%Poor on forward returns ← now
Show all 37 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 38.9+29%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 40.5+34%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 40.5+34%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 40.5+34%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 40.5+34%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 40.9+36%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 41.6+38%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 41.6+38%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 39.6+31%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 39.6+31%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 39.6+31%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 38.5+28%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 38.5+28%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 39.6+31%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 39.6+31%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 39.2+30%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 40.1+33%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-07P/E 42.5+41%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 43.3+44%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-14P/E 42.8+42%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 42.5+41%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-21P/E 42.1+40%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 42.6+41%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-27P/E 42.6+41%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 42.4+40%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 41.2+37%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 41.2+37%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 40.9+36%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 40.9+36%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-12P/E 40.6+35%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 40.6+35%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-19P/E 40.2+33%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 40.2+33%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-26P/E 41.3+37%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 41.3+37%Poor on forward returns
2026-10-03P/E 41.4+37%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 41.4+37%Poor on forward returns ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is Fastenal stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 41.4 versus its historical normal P/E of 30.2, Fastenal trades about 37% above its typical valuation, with a PEG of 4.10 on 10.1% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it poor on forward returns.

What is Fastenal's fair value and PEG?

Fastenal trades at a blended P/E of 41.4 against a historical normal P/E of 30.2, a PEG of 4.10, and a forward growth estimate of 10.1%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 30.2 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $50.75 corresponds to about $37.00 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Fastenal changed?

tickerseer's rating has been poor on forward returns since 2026-06-03.

What is the analyst price target for Fastenal?

The mean Wall Street price target for Fastenal is $48.84 across 13 analysts, 3.3% below the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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