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NIKE (NKE, Footwear) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Weak on forward returns

NIKE (NKE, Footwear) trades at a blended P/E of 18.5, about 26% below its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 2.5% and a PEG of 7.56. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 64% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 24.9 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $33.87 corresponds to about $45.60 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
18.5
Normal P/E
24.9
PEG
7.56
Fwd growth
2.5%
Div yield
4.8%
RSI (14)
38.3
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $34.74 at the 2026-10-08 close, 2.4% below the 20-day average ($35.60) and 8.8% below the 50-day ($38.10).
  • RSI (14) at 38.3.
  • 52-week range $33.87 to $67.46: the price is 48.5% below the high and 2.6% above the low.
  • Across its last 2 earnings reports the options market priced a median 9% move.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for NKE is $40.52 across 36 analysts, 16.6% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Hold. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: weak on forward returns. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has not changed since 2026-06-03, but its reason has: it read trading above its usual valuation then and reads weak on forward returns now.

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 31.5 to 18.5 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 24.9, with 4 rating changes over 33 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 31.5, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-07-02: P/E 20.8, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 21.3, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 21.3, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 21.6, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 21.6, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 21.6, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 21.3, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 21.3, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 20.4, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 20.4, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 20.7, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 20.5, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 20.7, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 20.5, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 20.4, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 20.1, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 19.9, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 20.2, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 20.2, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 19.1, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 19.7, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 19.7, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 19.2, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 19.2, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 18.5, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 18.5, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 18.0, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 18.0, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 18.2, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 18.2, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 18.5, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 18.5, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-0520.025.030.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 24.9
Mixed on our testsTrading above its usual valuationWeak on forward returns

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, every week the rating moved, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 31.5+27%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 19.1-23%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 19.7-21%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-05P/E 19.2-23%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-19P/E 18.0-28%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-10-03P/E 18.5-26%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 18.5-26%Weak on forward returns ← now
Show all 33 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 31.5+27%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 20.8-17%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 21.3-14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 21.3-14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 21.6-14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 21.6-14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 21.6-14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 21.3-14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 21.3-14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 20.4-18%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 20.4-18%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 20.7-17%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 20.5-18%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-07P/E 20.7-17%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 20.5-18%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-14P/E 20.4-18%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 20.1-19%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-21P/E 19.9-20%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 20.2-19%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-27P/E 20.2-19%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 19.1-23%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 19.7-21%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 19.7-21%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 19.2-23%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 19.2-23%Mixed on our tests
2026-09-12P/E 18.5-26%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 18.5-26%Mixed on our tests
2026-09-19P/E 18.0-28%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 18.0-28%Mixed on our tests
2026-09-26P/E 18.2-27%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 18.2-27%Mixed on our tests
2026-10-03P/E 18.5-26%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 18.5-26%Weak on forward returns ← now

Earnings moves: NKE moved more than the options market implied in 0 of 2 recent tracked reports.

Frequently asked questions

Is NIKE stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 18.5 versus its historical normal P/E of 24.9, NIKE trades about 26% below its typical valuation, with a PEG of 7.56 on 2.5% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it weak on forward returns.

What is NIKE's fair value and PEG?

NIKE trades at a blended P/E of 18.5 against a historical normal P/E of 24.9, a PEG of 7.56, and a forward growth estimate of 2.5%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 24.9 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $33.87 corresponds to about $45.60 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of NIKE changed?

tickerseer's rating has not changed since 2026-06-03, but its reason has: it read trading above its usual valuation then and reads weak on forward returns now.

What is the analyst price target for NIKE?

The mean Wall Street price target for NIKE is $40.52 across 36 analysts, 16.6% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Footwear. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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