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CF Industries Holdings (CF, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Mixed on our tests

CF Industries Holdings (CF, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals) trades at a blended P/E of 8.4, about 42% below its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of -19.8%. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 18% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 14.6 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $115.01 corresponds to about $200 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
8.4
Normal P/E
14.6
PEG
—
Fwd growth
-19.8%
Div yield
2.1%
RSI (14)
34.7
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $113.58 at the 2026-10-08 close, 6.4% below the 20-day average ($121.35) and 8.1% below the 50-day ($123.58).
  • RSI (14) at 34.7.
  • 52-week range $74.99 to $139.27: the price is 18.4% below the high and 51.5% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for CF is $127.69 across 20 analysts, 12.4% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Hold. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: mixed on our tests. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has been mixed on our tests since 2026-06-03.

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 9.3 to 8.4 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 14.6, with 2 rating changes over 37 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 9.3, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 8.9, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 8.9, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 8.9, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 8.9, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 8.1, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 8.3, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 8.3, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 8.6, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 8.6, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 8.6, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 8.9, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 8.9, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 9.2, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 9.2, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 9.1, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 9.1, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 8.7, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 8.5, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 9.0, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 9.1, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 9.6, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 9.9, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 9.9, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 9.6, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 9.6, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 9.6, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 10.1, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 10.1, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 10.0, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 10.0, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 9.5, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 9.5, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 8.4, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 8.4, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 8.4, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 8.4, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-10-0510.012.014.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 14.6
Mixed on our testsWeak on forward returns

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, every week the rating moved, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 9.3-36%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 8.1-44%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 9.6-34%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-05P/E 10.1-31%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-26P/E 8.4-42%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 8.4-42%Mixed on our tests ← now
Show all 37 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 9.3-36%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 8.9-39%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 8.9-39%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 8.9-39%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 8.9-39%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 8.1-44%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 8.3-43%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 8.3-43%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 8.6-41%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 8.6-41%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 8.6-41%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 8.9-39%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 8.9-39%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 9.2-37%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 9.2-37%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 9.1-37%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 9.1-38%Mixed on our tests
2026-08-07P/E 8.7-40%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 8.5-42%Mixed on our tests
2026-08-14P/E 9.0-38%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 9.1-38%Mixed on our tests
2026-08-21P/E 9.6-34%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 9.9-32%Mixed on our tests
2026-08-27P/E 9.9-32%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 9.6-34%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 9.6-34%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 9.6-34%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 10.1-31%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 10.1-31%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-12P/E 10.0-31%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 10.0-31%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-19P/E 9.5-35%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 9.5-35%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-26P/E 8.4-42%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 8.4-42%Mixed on our tests
2026-10-03P/E 8.4-42%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 8.4-42%Mixed on our tests ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is CF Industries Holdings stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 8.4 versus its historical normal P/E of 14.6, CF Industries Holdings trades about 42% below its typical valuation. tickerseer currently rates it mixed on our tests.

What is CF Industries Holdings's fair value and PEG?

CF Industries Holdings trades at a blended P/E of 8.4 against a historical normal P/E of 14.6, a forward growth estimate of -19.8%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 14.6 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $115.01 corresponds to about $200 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of CF Industries Holdings changed?

tickerseer's rating has been mixed on our tests since 2026-06-03.

What is the analyst price target for CF Industries Holdings?

The mean Wall Street price target for CF Industries Holdings is $127.69 across 20 analysts, 12.4% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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