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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG, Restaurants) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Poor on forward returns

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG, Restaurants) trades at a blended P/E of 28.0, about 45% below its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 15.6% and a PEG of 1.80. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 36% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 51.1 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $32.36 corresponds to about $59.00 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
28.0
Normal P/E
51.1
PEG
1.80
Fwd growth
15.6%
Div yield
0.0%
RSI (14)
46.8
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $32.68 at the 2026-10-08 close, 0.4% below the 20-day average ($32.80) and 5.4% below the 50-day ($34.53).
  • RSI (14) at 46.8.
  • 52-week range $28.18 to $42.36: the price is 22.9% below the high and 16.0% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for CMG is $43.76 across 31 analysts, 33.9% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Buy. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: poor on forward returns. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has been poor on forward returns since 2026-06-03.

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 28.1 to 28.0 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 51.1, with 2 rating changes over 37 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 28.1, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 25.4, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 25.4, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 25.4, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 25.4, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 30.4, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 30.8, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 30.8, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 30.7, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 30.7, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 30.7, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 30.0, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 30.0, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 27.7, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 27.7, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 33.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 32.1, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 29.1, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 28.3, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 28.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 28.9, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 30.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 31.9, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 31.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 32.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 32.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 32.9, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 32.0, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 32.0, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 31.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 31.3, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 28.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 28.9, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 27.1, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 27.1, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 28.0, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 28.0, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-0530.040.050.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 51.1
Weak on forward returnsPoor on forward returnsLarger dot: a stronger reading

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, every week the rating moved, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 28.1-45%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 25.4-50%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 30.4-40%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 33.3-35%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 28.0-45%Poor on forward returns ← now
Show all 37 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 28.1-45%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 25.4-50%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 25.4-50%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 25.4-50%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 25.4-50%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 30.4-40%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 30.8-40%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 30.8-40%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 30.7-40%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 30.7-40%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 30.7-40%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 30.0-41%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 30.0-41%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 27.7-46%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 27.7-46%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 33.3-35%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 32.1-37%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-07P/E 29.1-43%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 28.3-45%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-14P/E 28.2-45%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 28.9-43%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-21P/E 30.5-40%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 31.9-38%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-27P/E 31.9-38%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 32.2-37%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 32.9-36%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 32.9-36%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 32.0-37%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 32.0-37%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-12P/E 31.3-39%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 31.3-39%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-19P/E 28.9-43%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 28.9-43%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-26P/E 27.1-47%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 27.1-47%Poor on forward returns
2026-10-03P/E 28.0-45%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 28.0-45%Poor on forward returns ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 28.0 versus its historical normal P/E of 51.1, Chipotle Mexican Grill trades about 45% below its typical valuation, with a PEG of 1.80 on 15.6% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it poor on forward returns.

What is Chipotle Mexican Grill's fair value and PEG?

Chipotle Mexican Grill trades at a blended P/E of 28.0 against a historical normal P/E of 51.1, a PEG of 1.80, and a forward growth estimate of 15.6%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 51.1 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $32.36 corresponds to about $59.00 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Chipotle Mexican Grill changed?

tickerseer's rating has been poor on forward returns since 2026-06-03.

What is the analyst price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill?

The mean Wall Street price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill is $43.76 across 31 analysts, 33.9% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Restaurants. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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