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Illinois Tool Works (ITW, Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Weak on forward returns

Illinois Tool Works (ITW, Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components) trades at a blended P/E of 23.4, about 14% above its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 7.0% and a PEG of 3.37. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 73% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 20.5 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $262.92 corresponds to about $230 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
23.4
Normal P/E
20.5
PEG
3.37
Fwd growth
7.0%
Div yield
2.6%
RSI (14)
46.2
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $264.71 at the 2026-10-08 close, 0.6% below the 20-day average ($266.22) and 3.8% below the 50-day ($275.25).
  • RSI (14) at 46.2.
  • 52-week range $235.06 to $295.41: the price is 10.4% below the high and 12.6% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for ITW is $300.64 across 14 analysts, 13.6% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Hold. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: weak on forward returns. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has been weak on forward returns since 2026-06-03.

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 23.1 to 23.4 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 20.5, with 4 rating changes over 36 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 23.1, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 23.3, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 23.3, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 23.3, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 23.3, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 24.7, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 25.0, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 25.0, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 24.6, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 24.6, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 24.6, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 25.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 25.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 25.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-31: P/E 25.7, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 26.0, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 26.7, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 26.9, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 26.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 26.2, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 26.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 25.4, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 25.4, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 25.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 25.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 25.2, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 24.2, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 24.2, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 24.0, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 24.0, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 24.1, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 24.1, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 24.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 24.5, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 23.4, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 23.4, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-0522.024.026.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 20.5
Weak on forward returnsTrading above its usual valuationPoor on forward returnsLarger dot: a stronger reading

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, every week the rating moved, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 23.1+13%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 25.2+23%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 26.9+31%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 24.2+18%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-26P/E 24.5+20%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-03P/E 23.4+14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 23.4+14%Weak on forward returns ← now
Show all 36 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 23.1+13%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 23.3+14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 23.3+14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 23.3+14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 23.3+14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 24.7+20%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 25.0+22%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 25.0+22%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 24.6+20%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 24.6+20%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 24.6+20%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 25.2+23%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 25.2+23%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 25.9+26%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 25.7+26%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 26.0+27%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-07P/E 26.7+30%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 26.9+31%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-14P/E 26.3+28%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 26.2+28%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-21P/E 26.2+28%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 25.4+24%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-27P/E 25.4+24%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 25.3+24%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 25.2+23%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 25.2+23%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 24.2+18%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 24.2+18%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-12P/E 24.0+17%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 24.0+17%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-19P/E 24.1+18%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 24.1+18%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-26P/E 24.5+20%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 24.5+20%Poor on forward returns
2026-10-03P/E 23.4+14%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 23.4+14%Weak on forward returns ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is Illinois Tool Works stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 23.4 versus its historical normal P/E of 20.5, Illinois Tool Works trades about 14% above its typical valuation, with a PEG of 3.37 on 7.0% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it weak on forward returns.

What is Illinois Tool Works's fair value and PEG?

Illinois Tool Works trades at a blended P/E of 23.4 against a historical normal P/E of 20.5, a PEG of 3.37, and a forward growth estimate of 7.0%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 20.5 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $262.92 corresponds to about $230 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Illinois Tool Works changed?

tickerseer's rating has been weak on forward returns since 2026-06-03.

What is the analyst price target for Illinois Tool Works?

The mean Wall Street price target for Illinois Tool Works is $300.64 across 14 analysts, 13.6% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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