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Mercury Systems (MRCY, Aerospace & Defense) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Significantly overvalued

Mercury Systems (MRCY, Aerospace & Defense) trades at a blended P/E of 70.0, about 100% above its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 31.2% and a PEG of 2.24. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 9% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 35.0 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $84.87 corresponds to about $42.40 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
70.0
Normal P/E
35.0
PEG
2.24
Fwd growth
31.2%
Div yield
0.0%
RSI (14)
34.4
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $78.52 at the 2026-10-08 close, 5.6% below the 20-day average ($83.18) and 14.0% below the 50-day ($91.33).
  • RSI (14) at 34.4.
  • 52-week range $66.12 to $126.21: the price is 37.8% below the high and 18.8% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for MRCY is $115.70 across 10 analysts, 47.4% above the current price. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: significantly overvalued. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has been significantly overvalued since 2026-08-14.

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 98.2 to 70.0 between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 35.0, with 0 rating changes over 18 recorded weeks.2026-08-14: P/E 98.2, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 99.3, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 99.3, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 80.1, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 80.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 80.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 80.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 76.6, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 76.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 70.6, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 70.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 68.4, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 68.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 71.7, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 71.7, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 68.5, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 68.5, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 70.0, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-10-0540.060.080.0Aug 14Aug 26Sep 7Sep 20Oct 2Normal P/E 35.0
Significantly overvalued

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-08-14P/E 98.2+221%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 99.3+225%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-14P/E 68.4+96%Significantly overvalued
2026-10-05P/E 70.0+100%Significantly overvalued ← now
Show all 18 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-08-14P/E 98.2+221%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 99.3+225%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-21P/E 99.3+225%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 80.1+129%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-27P/E 80.1+129%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 80.1+129%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 80.1+129%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 76.6+119%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-05P/E 76.6+119%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 70.6+102%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-12P/E 70.6+102%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 68.4+96%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-19P/E 68.4+96%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 71.7+105%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-26P/E 71.7+105%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 68.5+96%Significantly overvalued
2026-10-03P/E 68.5+96%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 70.0+100%Significantly overvalued ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is Mercury Systems stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 70.0 versus its historical normal P/E of 35.0, Mercury Systems trades about 100% above its typical valuation, with a PEG of 2.24 on 31.2% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it significantly overvalued.

What is Mercury Systems's fair value and PEG?

Mercury Systems trades at a blended P/E of 70.0 against a historical normal P/E of 35.0, a PEG of 2.24, and a forward growth estimate of 31.2%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 35.0 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $84.87 corresponds to about $42.40 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Mercury Systems changed?

tickerseer's rating has been significantly overvalued since 2026-08-14.

What is the analyst price target for Mercury Systems?

The mean Wall Street price target for Mercury Systems is $115.70 across 10 analysts, 47.4% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Aerospace & Defense. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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