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Vistra (VST, Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Trading above its usual valuation

Vistra (VST, Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders) trades at a blended P/E of 19.4, about 20% above its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 26.6% and a PEG of 0.73. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 25% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 16.1 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $140.02 corresponds to about $116 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
19.4
Normal P/E
16.1
PEG
0.73
Fwd growth
26.6%
Div yield
0.7%
RSI (14)
60.7
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $156.14 at the 2026-10-08 close, 8.6% above the 20-day average ($143.73) and 8.8% above the 50-day ($143.47).
  • RSI (14) at 60.7.
  • 52-week range $134.30 to $209.63: the price is 25.5% below the high and 16.3% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for VST is $212.25 across 20 analysts, 35.9% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Strong Buy. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: trading above its usual valuation. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating moved from significantly overvalued (2026-06-03) to trading above its usual valuation (2026-10-05).

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 32.2 to 19.4 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 16.1, with 3 rating changes over 37 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 32.2, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 29.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 29.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 29.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 29.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 26.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 25.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 25.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 26.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 26.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 26.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 25.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 25.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 26.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 26.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 23.3, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 23.2, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 21.7, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 22.1, Trading above its usual valuation, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 22.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 22.8, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 21.1, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 20.6, Trading above its usual valuation, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 20.6, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 21.0, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 20.5, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 20.5, Trading above its usual valuation, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 21.9, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 21.9, Trading above its usual valuation, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 21.4, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 21.4, Trading above its usual valuation, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 20.4, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 20.4, Trading above its usual valuation, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 19.9, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 19.9, Trading above its usual valuation, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 19.4, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 19.4, Trading above its usual valuation, recorded live 2026-10-0520.025.030.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 16.1
Trading above its usual valuationSignificantly overvaluedLarger dot: a stronger reading

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, every week the rating moved, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 32.2+100%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-07P/E 21.7+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-08-14P/E 22.6+41%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-21P/E 21.1+31%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-10-03P/E 19.4+20%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 19.4+20%Trading above its usual valuation ← now
Show all 37 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 32.2+100%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 29.0+80%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 29.0+80%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 29.0+80%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 29.0+80%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 26.4+64%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 25.9+61%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 25.9+61%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 26.6+65%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 26.6+65%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 26.6+65%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 25.4+58%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 25.4+58%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 26.1+62%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 26.1+62%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 23.3+45%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 23.2+44%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-07P/E 21.7+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 22.1+37%Trading above its usual valuation
2026-08-14P/E 22.6+41%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 22.8+42%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-21P/E 21.1+31%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 20.6+28%Trading above its usual valuation
2026-08-27P/E 20.6+28%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 21.0+31%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 20.5+28%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 20.5+28%Trading above its usual valuation
2026-09-05P/E 21.9+36%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 21.9+36%Trading above its usual valuation
2026-09-12P/E 21.4+33%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 21.4+33%Trading above its usual valuation
2026-09-19P/E 20.4+27%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 20.4+27%Trading above its usual valuation
2026-09-26P/E 19.9+23%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 19.9+23%Trading above its usual valuation
2026-10-03P/E 19.4+20%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 19.4+20%Trading above its usual valuation ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is Vistra stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 19.4 versus its historical normal P/E of 16.1, Vistra trades about 20% above its typical valuation, with a PEG of 0.73 on 26.6% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it trading above its usual valuation.

What is Vistra's fair value and PEG?

Vistra trades at a blended P/E of 19.4 against a historical normal P/E of 16.1, a PEG of 0.73, and a forward growth estimate of 26.6%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 16.1 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $140.02 corresponds to about $116 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Vistra changed?

tickerseer's rating moved from significantly overvalued (2026-06-03) to trading above its usual valuation (2026-10-05).

What is the analyst price target for Vistra?

The mean Wall Street price target for Vistra is $212.25 across 20 analysts, 35.9% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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