TRACK RECORD
Week of Jun 15, 2026
Settled options ideas entered during this week, scored against
the stock's actual close around expiration. Every call is here, win or
loss. Open Why this call under any of them to read how it was
picked and, where it was recorded, what the analysis said at the
time.
DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Overall Win Rate
50%
2W / 2L · 4 settled calls
Bear Call Spread
100%
1W / 0L
Bull Put Spread
33%
1W / 2L
- Market context that week
SPY: ~$751–757, 20-day SMA ~$746 → ABOVE QQQ: ~$740.61, 20-day SMA ~$721.51 → ABOVE
- Policy in force that week
The learning loop was not running that week.
ACNBull Put SpreadBullishTier 1 - Strikes
- $144.91 / $137.66 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-06-17
- Expiry
- 2026-06-19
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Loss−$1,500
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Accenture's valuation compression is the most extreme setup of the week: PE 12.47 vs Hist_Normal_PE 21.34 implies the stock is 41.6% undervalued, and the SeerAI-equivalent ROR sits at +21.4%. The 1-year scorecard shows 0% miss rate (100% hit), confirming reliable execution. Q3 FY2026 consensus is $3.70–3.72 EPS on ~$18.78B revenue. Key risk is federal IT spending weakness and slower discretionary consulting — use a credit structure, not a debit call spread, so that the trade wins even if ACN meets but does not beat. Lesson 1 applies: bullish default is bull put spread.
- How it was picked
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
- Policy in force that week
The learning loop was not running that week.
KMXBear Call SpreadBearishTier 2 - Strikes
- $54.72 / $57.46 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-06-16
- Expiry
- 2026-06-19
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$329
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Local CSV shows Fore_Est_Annual_ROR of –24.1% and Fore_Growth_Rate of 0.13% — essentially a zero-growth business priced at fair value (PE 18.64 vs NormPE 20.84). Street expects EPS of $0.94, representing a –31.9% decline year-over-year; margin compression from used-car affordability headwinds is the explicit fundamental catalyst that qualifies this as a bearish play under bullish macro conditions. Scorecard shows 27% miss rate and only 9% beat rate, further reducing upside surprise risk. Activist investor interest noted but not yet a catalyst override.
- How it was picked
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
- Policy in force that week
The learning loop was not running that week.
KRBull Put SpreadBullishTier 2 - Strikes
- $57.72 / $54.83 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-06-17
- Expiry
- 2026-06-19
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Loss−$504
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Kroger's CSV data shows ROR of +15.4% and PE near NormPE (fairly valued), with a 0% miss rate and 45% beat rate — one of the best scorecards in the dataset. Q1 FY2026 consensus EPS is $1.58 (+6% YoY), and options imply a 6.02% move. The trade is a credit put spread that wins if Kroger simply holds above its support into the print. Four consecutive quarters of EPS beats support the expectation that estimates are conservative.
- How it was picked
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
- Policy in force that week
The learning loop was not running that week.
LZBBull Put SpreadBullishTier 3
- Strikes
- $32.96 / $31.31 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-06-16
- Expiry
- 2026-06-19
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$188
Why this call
- What the analysis said
No local CSV row found. External data shows stock trading at ~$38.36 vs analyst consensus target of $44.50 (+16% gap). Fiscal Q4 FY2026 EPS estimate is $0.82 with manageable expectations. The edge is "holds support into quarter," not a squeeze trade. Skip immediately if bid-ask spread on options is more than $0.20 wide or open interest is thin.
- How it was picked
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
- Policy in force that week
The learning loop was not running that week.