TRACK RECORD
Week of Jul 6, 2026
Settled options ideas entered during this week, scored against
the stock's actual close around expiration. Every call is here, win or
loss. Open Why this call under any of them to read how it was
picked and, where it was recorded, what the analysis said at the
time.
DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Overall Win Rate
100%
3W / 0L · 3 settled calls
Bull Put Spread
100%
3W / 0L
- Market context that week
- SPY: 744.78 vs 20-day MA 740.12 → above MA - QQQ: 712.60 vs 20-day MA 720.67 → below MA - Verdict: At least one index is below its 20-day MA, so directional flexibility applies — bear spreads do not require an explicit catalyst this week. (There are no clean bear candidates anyway; the calendar is staples-heavy.)
- Policy in force that week
3 lessons were active that week.
LEVIBull Put SpreadBullishTier 3 - Strikes
- $21.79 / $20.70 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-07-08
- Expiry
- 2026-07-10
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$188
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Levi raised FY26 adjusted EPS to $1.42–1.48 and continues to execute on DTC + Beyond Yoga, with tariffs managed (gross margin held ~62%). That supports a hold-above-support credit play rather than a directional bet. Caveats: the stock sits near its 52-week high ($24.82), apparel is discretionary, and tariff assumptions (China 30%) are a live risk — hence Tier 3 and credit-only.
- Execution gate: confirm the $21/$20 spread fetches a meaningful credit; at a ~$23 underlying the strikes are dollar-wide, so skip if the credit is thin.
- How it was picked
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
- Policy in force that week
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
PEPBull Put SpreadBullishTier 2 - Strikes
- $136.10 / $129.29 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-07-08
- Expiry
- 2026-07-10
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$329
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Best setup of a thin week. SeerAI score with PE 16.87 vs NormPE 20.59 = −18% undervalued, 0% 1-year miss rate, and PepsiCo has beaten EPS in each of the last 4 quarters. Consensus is EPS $2.21 / rev $23.96B (up from $22.7B YoY), with North-American snack volumes rebounding and a possible full-year guidance raise as the bull catalyst. The stock is already down meaningfully into the print (bouncing off ~$144, below the $148.70 resistance it's trying to reclaim), so much of the downside is de-risked. Mature-staple guidance risk keeps this credit-only (no debit call spread).
- Risk: a soft volume print or an FX/guidance disappointment could break $137; keep to Tier-2 size and place the GTC close immediately.
- How it was picked
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
- Policy in force that week
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
PSMTBull Put SpreadBullishTier 3 - Strikes
- $174.25 / $165.54 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-07-08
- Expiry
- 2026-07-10
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$188
Why this call
- What the analysis said
PriceSmart is a steady LatAm warehouse-club operator with durable comps; consensus is EPS $1.32 / rev $1.43B and it has been a momentum leader (+95% YoY off the $101 low). The credit-spread collects premium if it holds support — not a bet on a further rally. Key risk: at $198, essentially at the 52-week high, any comp/margin miss mean-reverts hard, and PSMT options are thin.
- Hard liquidity gate: if the $182/$175 bid-ask is wide or the credit is < ~$0.60, skip — do not chase.
- How it was picked
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
- Policy in force that week
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.