TRACK RECORD
Week of Aug 31, 2026
Settled options ideas entered during this week, scored against
the stock's actual close around expiration. Every call is here, win or
loss. Open Why this call under any of them to read how it was
picked and, where it was recorded, what the analysis said at the
time.
DATA AS OF 2026-09-21
Overall Win Rate
83%
5W / 1L · 6 settled calls
Bull Put Spread
83%
5W / 1L
- Market context that week
SPY 772.69 vs 20-day MA 769.38 (above) · QQQ 721.25 vs 20-day MA 718.18 (above). Both indexes sit above their 20-day averages, so bear spreads this week require an explicit fundamental catalyst; valuation alone does not qualify. Every bearish model signal this week failed that bar, so the week is credit-bull and No Play only.
- Policy in force that week
10 lessons were active that week.
AMDBull Put SpreadBullish - Strikes
- $437.77 / $415.88 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-08-31
- Expiry
- 2026-09-11
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$188
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Not recorded for this week.
- How it was picked
From the written analysis. The weekly analysis made this call. The rule-based screen did not select this ticker and structure that week.
- Policy in force that week
1 of 10 lessons active that week named this play.
- bull-debit-call-structure-downgrade: Bullish debit structures (Bull Call Spread / Long Call) into earnings lose at a far higher rate than credit Bull Put Spreads across the entire sample, so downgrade any long-side thesis expressed as a debit call structure and prefer the put-credit expression.
AVGOBull Put SpreadBullishTier 1 - Strikes
- $332.35 / $315.73 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-09-02
- Expiry
- 2026-09-04
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$706
Why this call
- What the analysis said
The strongest signal of the week: Seer score, 0% 1Y miss rate, est. annual return +81%, and AI semiconductor revenue guided to ~$16B for the quarter (+200% YoY) on ~$29.4B consensus revenue. The Tier 0 stale-Normal-P/E pattern fired here, but learned policy prefers the credit expression: bullish debit structures into earnings settle far worse than put credit spreads, so we collect premium below the market rather than paying for upside. Active CSP: $340 put exp Sep 18 (medium conviction) — same direction as this play.
- Risk: After the June quarter, shares fell 12.6% despite a beat when the 2027 AI target was not raised; the short strike sits just outside that move, but a repeat of that reaction plus follow-through would test it. Enter only on Wednesday to minimize exposure days.
- How it was picked
From the written analysis. The weekly analysis made this call. The rule-based screen did not select this ticker and structure that week.
- Policy in force that week
1 of 10 lessons active that week named this play.
- bull-debit-call-structure-downgrade: Bullish debit structures (Bull Call Spread / Long Call) into earnings lose at a far higher rate than credit Bull Put Spreads across the entire sample, so downgrade any long-side thesis expressed as a debit call structure and prefer the put-credit expression.
CRDOBull Put SpreadBullishTier 2 - Strikes
- —No data
- Entered
- 2026-09-01
- Expiry
- 2026-09-04
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Loss—Modeled P&L withheld: strike reconstruction failed a sanity check and the row is queued for restatement.
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Reasoning withheld for this row. It can restate the same strikes this receipt does not publish.
- How it was picked
From the written analysis. The weekly analysis made this call. The rule-based screen did not select this ticker and structure that week.
- Policy in force that week
1 of 10 lessons active that week named this play.
- bull-debit-call-structure-downgrade: Bullish debit structures (Bull Call Spread / Long Call) into earnings lose at a far higher rate than credit Bull Put Spreads across the entire sample, so downgrade any long-side thesis expressed as a debit call structure and prefer the put-credit expression.
DELLBull Put SpreadBullishTier 3 - Strikes
- $380.38 / $361.36 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-09-01
- Expiry
- 2026-09-04
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$188
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Est. annual return +22.4% with a 63% beat rate and analysts expecting another AI server guidance raise (full-year AI server revenue seen near $21B against $15B guided). The stock is up roughly 260% this year and just set a record high, so the pre-earnings run-up rule demotes this from a Tier 1 signal to Tier 3 size. Short strike sits just past the ~10% implied move; the spread wins if Dell merely avoids a hard guidance disappointment.
- Risk: After a 260% run, even an in-line quarter can sell off hard. Do not upsize past Tier 3.
- How it was picked
Rule-based screen agreed. The rule-based screen selected this ticker and structure independently that week.
- Signal class: Bull
- Valuation vs its own normal P/E: +312%
- Policy in force that week
1 of 10 lessons active that week named this play.
- bull-debit-call-structure-downgrade: Bullish debit structures (Bull Call Spread / Long Call) into earnings lose at a far higher rate than credit Bull Put Spreads across the entire sample, so downgrade any long-side thesis expressed as a debit call structure and prefer the put-credit expression.
LULUBull Put SpreadBullishTier 3 - Strikes
- $106.55 / $101.22 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-09-03
- Expiry
- 2026-09-04
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$188
Why this call
- What the analysis said
The compression pattern fired at full strength: Seer score with Blended P/E 9.6 against a Normal P/E of 36.7 and est. annual return +19.9%, on a stock 49% below its peak with expectations already reset twice (Q2 EPS guided $1.76–1.81 against $3.10 last year, tariffs guided as a 410 bps gross margin hit). This is not a bet on a rally, only that the bad news is priced; the learned apparel/beauty lesson and the 27% 1Y miss rate cap it at Tier 3, expressed as credit per policy.
- Risk: The stock has exceeded its 8.1% implied move in six of its last eight reports, which is why the short strike sits 12–13% out rather than at the implied move. A third guidance cut would still threaten it. Skip if the credit at those strikes is not meaningful.
- How it was picked
From the written analysis. The weekly analysis made this call. The rule-based screen did not select this ticker and structure that week.
- Policy in force that week
1 of 10 lessons active that week named this play.
- bull-debit-call-structure-downgrade: Bullish debit structures (Bull Call Spread / Long Call) into earnings lose at a far higher rate than credit Bull Put Spreads across the entire sample, so downgrade any long-side thesis expressed as a debit call structure and prefer the put-credit expression.
- Strikes
- $891.62 / $847.04 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-08-31
- Expiry
- 2026-09-11
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$188
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Not recorded for this week.
- How it was picked
From the written analysis. The weekly analysis made this call. The rule-based screen did not select this ticker and structure that week.
- Policy in force that week
1 of 10 lessons active that week named this play.
- bull-debit-call-structure-downgrade: Bullish debit structures (Bull Call Spread / Long Call) into earnings lose at a far higher rate than credit Bull Put Spreads across the entire sample, so downgrade any long-side thesis expressed as a debit call structure and prefer the put-credit expression.