Week of Oct 5, 2026

Settled options ideas entered during this week, scored against the stock's actual close around expiration. Every call is here, win or loss. Open Why this call under any of them to read how it was picked and, where it was recorded, what the analysis said at the time.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05

Overall Win Rate

100%

1W / 0L · 1 settled calls

Bull Put Spread

100%

1W / 0L

Market context that week: SPY 769.64 (20-day MA 763.98, above) · QQQ 749.58 (20-day MA 727.41, above). Both indices sit above their 20-day moving average, so the macro gate is in force: a bear spread needs an explicit fundamental catalyst, and valuation alone does not qualify.

Policy in force that week: 12 lessons were active that week.

STZBull Put SpreadBullishTier 3

Strikes: $108 / $105 listed
Entered: 2026-10-06
Expiry: 2026-10-09
Engine: SeerForecast

Win+$308

Why this call

What the analysis said

P/E 9.59 against a Normal P/E of 17.86 (46% below), est. annual return +28.8% and a 1Y miss rate of 9%, held to Tier 2 by SeerAI score and forecast growth of only 4.6%, and run at Tier 3 because fallback plays are Tier 3 only. The company has already told investors that beer shipments will trail depletions by 6 to 7 points this quarter, so the weak headline is known. Options price a 5.8% move. The short put at $106 is 6.1% below spot, 1.05 times the move. At a 2.5-point width the spread models $0.40, 16% of the width: under the 20% floor that governs every other play, and over the 15% fallback floor. Fallback play, added Sunday, October 4 (see Macro Context). As first published on Saturday this card was a No Trade, because at the move a $1-wide spread modeled about $0.18 (18%) and a $2.50-wide spread $0.40 (16%), both under the 20% floor, and the floor cleared only at $107, 5.2% below spot and 0.9 times the move, where a $1-wide spread modeled about $0.21 (21%).

Risk: The stock closed at $112.87, 0.1% above its 52-week low and 11.1% below its 50-day average, so there is no support under it from recent trading. A close below $106 on Friday starts a loss, and a close below $103.50 loses the full $210 per spread.
Execution gate: if the live credit at these strikes is under $0.38 (15% of the width), skip the play. Do not walk the short strike in toward spot to collect more.

How it was picked: From the written analysis. The weekly analysis made this call. The rule-based screen did not select this ticker and structure that week.

Policy in force that week

1 of 12 lessons active that week named this play.

bull-debit-call-structure-downgrade: Bullish debit structures (Bull Call Spread / Long Call) into earnings lose at a far higher rate than credit Bull Put Spreads across the entire sample, so downgrade any long-side thesis expressed as a debit call structure and prefer the put-credit expression.

Strikes appear only after a call settles, and each carries the label it earned. Modeled means reconstructed from the play’s stated sizing rules, or from the house methodology’s default offsets where the play stated none. Listed means our daily re-pricing job read the option chain that morning and picked a strike the chain actually lists, so the number names a contract that existed. Neither is a fill: we do not record fills, and no label here claims one. Older rows without enough stored detail to reconstruct show —.

This ledger shows the outcome of every options idea our SeerForecast engine has published: wins and losses alike, with none removed. Outcomes are scored mechanically against the stock's actual close around expiration. Past results do not predict future performance, and this ledger is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each settled call's decision receipt is on its week's page: how it was picked, the policy in force, and the analysis's own reasoning where it was recorded. The current week's analysis is part of the paid product.