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Toll Brothers (TOL, Homebuilding) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Favorable on our tests

Toll Brothers (TOL, Homebuilding) trades at a blended P/E of 10.7, about 34% below its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 11.3% and a PEG of 0.94. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 27% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 16.2 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $136.61 corresponds to about $208 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
10.7
Normal P/E
16.2
PEG
0.94
Fwd growth
11.3%
Div yield
0.8%
RSI (14)
44.4
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $134.83 at the 2026-10-08 close, 0.4% below the 20-day average ($135.36) and 5.0% below the 50-day ($141.92).
  • RSI (14) at 44.4.
  • 52-week range $123.92 to $165.52: the price is 18.5% below the high and 8.8% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for TOL is $170.62 across 16 analysts, 26.5% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Buy. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: favorable on our tests. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has been favorable on our tests since 2026-08-14.

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 11.5 to 10.7 between 2026-08-14 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 16.2, with 0 rating changes over 18 recorded weeks.2026-08-14: P/E 11.5, Favorable on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 11.4, Favorable on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 11.4, Favorable on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 11.4, Favorable on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 11.4, Favorable on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 11.4, Favorable on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 11.4, Favorable on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 11.3, Favorable on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 11.3, Favorable on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 11.0, Favorable on our tests, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 11.0, Favorable on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 10.5, Favorable on our tests, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 10.5, Favorable on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 10.4, Favorable on our tests, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 10.4, Favorable on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 10.7, Favorable on our tests, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 10.7, Favorable on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 10.7, Favorable on our tests, recorded live 2026-10-0512.014.016.0Aug 14Aug 26Sep 7Sep 20Oct 2Normal P/E 16.2
Favorable on our tests

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-08-14P/E 11.5-29%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 10.4-36%Favorable on our tests
2026-10-05P/E 10.7-34%Favorable on our tests ← now
Show all 18 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-08-14P/E 11.5-29%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 11.4-29%Favorable on our tests
2026-08-21P/E 11.4-29%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 11.4-30%Favorable on our tests
2026-08-27P/E 11.4-30%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 11.4-30%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 11.4-30%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 11.3-30%Favorable on our tests
2026-09-05P/E 11.3-30%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 11.0-32%Favorable on our tests
2026-09-12P/E 11.0-32%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 10.5-35%Favorable on our tests
2026-09-19P/E 10.5-35%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 10.4-36%Favorable on our tests
2026-09-26P/E 10.4-36%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 10.7-34%Favorable on our tests
2026-10-03P/E 10.7-34%Favorable on our tests (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 10.7-34%Favorable on our tests ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is Toll Brothers stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 10.7 versus its historical normal P/E of 16.2, Toll Brothers trades about 34% below its typical valuation, with a PEG of 0.94 on 11.3% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it favorable on our tests.

What is Toll Brothers's fair value and PEG?

Toll Brothers trades at a blended P/E of 10.7 against a historical normal P/E of 16.2, a PEG of 0.94, and a forward growth estimate of 11.3%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 16.2 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $136.61 corresponds to about $208 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Toll Brothers changed?

tickerseer's rating has been favorable on our tests since 2026-08-14.

What is the analyst price target for Toll Brothers?

The mean Wall Street price target for Toll Brothers is $170.62 across 16 analysts, 26.5% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Homebuilding. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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