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Tesla (TSLA, Automobile Manufacturers) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Poor on forward returns

Tesla (TSLA, Automobile Manufacturers) trades at a blended P/E of 219.3, about 27% above its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 25.3% and a PEG of 8.67. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 173.2 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $370.59 corresponds to about $293 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
219.3
Normal P/E
173.2
PEG
8.67
Fwd growth
25.3%
Div yield
0.0%
RSI (14)
55.3
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $375.00 at the 2026-10-08 close, 2.0% above the 20-day average ($367.80) and 6.2% above the 50-day ($353.27).
  • RSI (14) at 55.3.
  • 52-week range $298.32 to $489.88: the price is 23.5% below the high and 25.7% above the low.
  • At its last earnings report the options market priced a 6.7% move.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for TSLA is $395.57 across 38 analysts, 5.5% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Buy. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: poor on forward returns. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has not changed since 2026-06-03, but its reason has: it read significantly overvalued then and reads poor on forward returns now.

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 249.8 to 219.3 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 173.2, with 0 rating changes over 37 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 249.8, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 219.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 219.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 219.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 219.2, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 235.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 216.4, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 216.4, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 222.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 222.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 222.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 203.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 203.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 181.8, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 181.8, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 179.8, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 184.6, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 189.1, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 194.4, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 201.1, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 203.2, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 204.8, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 215.3, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 215.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 210.4, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 206.8, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 206.8, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 209.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 209.5, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 215.6, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 215.6, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 215.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 215.3, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 220.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 220.3, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 219.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 219.3, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-05180.0200.0220.0240.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 173.2
Significantly overvaluedPoor on forward returns

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 249.8+44%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 179.8+4%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 219.3+27%Poor on forward returns ← now
Show all 37 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 249.8+44%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 219.2+27%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 219.2+27%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 219.2+27%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 219.2+27%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 235.3+36%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 216.4+25%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 216.4+25%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 222.5+28%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 222.5+28%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 222.5+28%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 203.9+18%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 203.9+18%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 181.8+5%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 181.8+5%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 179.8+4%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 184.6+7%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-07P/E 189.1+9%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 194.4+12%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-14P/E 201.1+16%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 203.2+17%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-21P/E 204.8+18%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 215.3+24%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-27P/E 215.3+24%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 210.4+21%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 206.8+19%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 206.8+19%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 209.5+21%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 209.5+21%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-12P/E 215.6+24%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 215.6+24%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-19P/E 215.3+24%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 215.3+24%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-26P/E 220.3+27%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 220.3+27%Poor on forward returns
2026-10-03P/E 219.3+27%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 219.3+27%Poor on forward returns ← now

Earnings moves: TSLA moved more than the options market implied in 1 of 1 recent tracked reports.

Frequently asked questions

Is Tesla stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 219.3 versus its historical normal P/E of 173.2, Tesla trades about 27% above its typical valuation, with a PEG of 8.67 on 25.3% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it poor on forward returns.

What is Tesla's fair value and PEG?

Tesla trades at a blended P/E of 219.3 against a historical normal P/E of 173.2, a PEG of 8.67, and a forward growth estimate of 25.3%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 173.2 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $370.59 corresponds to about $293 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Tesla changed?

tickerseer's rating has not changed since 2026-06-03, but its reason has: it read significantly overvalued then and reads poor on forward returns now.

What is the analyst price target for Tesla?

The mean Wall Street price target for Tesla is $395.57 across 38 analysts, 5.5% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Automobile Manufacturers. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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