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Ulta Beauty (ULTA, Other Specialty Retail) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Weak on forward returns

Ulta Beauty (ULTA, Other Specialty Retail) trades at a blended P/E of 19.5, about 31% below its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 11.2% and a PEG of 1.75. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 45% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 28.4 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $543.69 corresponds to about $793 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
19.5
Normal P/E
28.4
PEG
1.75
Fwd growth
11.2%
Div yield
0.0%
RSI (14)
61.1
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $564.21 at the 2026-10-08 close, 3.3% above the 20-day average ($546.44) and 4.6% above the 50-day ($539.24).
  • RSI (14) at 61.1.
  • 52-week range $450.75 to $706.82: the price is 20.2% below the high and 25.2% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for ULTA is $631.44 across 25 analysts, 11.9% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Buy. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: weak on forward returns. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating moved from mixed on our tests (2026-06-03) to weak on forward returns (2026-10-05).

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 19.6 to 19.5 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 28.4, with 5 rating changes over 37 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 19.6, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 17.5, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 17.5, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 17.5, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 17.5, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 16.9, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 17.1, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 17.1, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 17.4, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 17.4, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 17.4, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 17.7, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 17.7, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 17.5, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 17.5, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 19.0, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 18.9, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 19.8, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 20.7, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 18.9, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 18.7, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 18.8, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 19.1, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 19.1, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 19.6, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 18.8, Mixed on our tests, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 18.8, Mixed on our tests, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 20.4, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 20.4, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 19.8, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 19.8, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 19.5, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 19.5, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 19.6, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 19.6, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 19.5, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 19.5, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-0520.025.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 28.4
Mixed on our testsWeak on forward returns

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, every week the rating moved, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 19.6-31%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 16.9-41%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-07P/E 19.8-30%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 20.7-27%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-14P/E 18.9-34%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 19.6-31%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 18.8-34%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-09-05P/E 20.4-28%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 19.5-31%Weak on forward returns ← now
Show all 37 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 19.6-31%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 17.5-38%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 17.5-38%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 17.5-38%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 17.5-38%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 16.9-41%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 17.1-40%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 17.1-40%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 17.4-39%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 17.4-39%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 17.4-39%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 17.7-38%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 17.7-38%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 17.5-38%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 17.5-38%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 19.0-33%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 18.9-34%Mixed on our tests
2026-08-07P/E 19.8-30%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 20.7-27%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-14P/E 18.9-34%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 18.7-34%Mixed on our tests
2026-08-21P/E 18.8-34%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 19.1-33%Mixed on our tests
2026-08-27P/E 19.1-33%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 19.6-31%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 18.8-34%Mixed on our tests (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 18.8-34%Mixed on our tests
2026-09-05P/E 20.4-28%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 20.4-28%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-12P/E 19.8-31%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 19.8-31%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-19P/E 19.5-31%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 19.5-31%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-26P/E 19.6-31%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 19.6-31%Weak on forward returns
2026-10-03P/E 19.5-31%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 19.5-31%Weak on forward returns ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is Ulta Beauty stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 19.5 versus its historical normal P/E of 28.4, Ulta Beauty trades about 31% below its typical valuation, with a PEG of 1.75 on 11.2% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it weak on forward returns.

What is Ulta Beauty's fair value and PEG?

Ulta Beauty trades at a blended P/E of 19.5 against a historical normal P/E of 28.4, a PEG of 1.75, and a forward growth estimate of 11.2%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 28.4 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $543.69 corresponds to about $793 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Ulta Beauty changed?

tickerseer's rating moved from mixed on our tests (2026-06-03) to weak on forward returns (2026-10-05).

What is the analyst price target for Ulta Beauty?

The mean Wall Street price target for Ulta Beauty is $631.44 across 25 analysts, 11.9% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Other Specialty Retail. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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