TRACK RECORD
Week of Jun 29, 2026
Settled options ideas entered during this week, scored against
the stock's actual close around expiration. Every call is here, win or
loss. Open Why this call under any of them to read how it was
picked and, where it was recorded, what the analysis said at the
time.
DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Overall Win Rate
67%
2W / 1L · 3 settled calls
Bull Call Spread
0%
0W / 1L
Bull Put Spread
100%
2W / 0L
- Market context that week
SPY: Trading near its 20-day SMA (~$746); above the 20-day EMA (~$742). Borderline — sitting on its own moving average. QQQ: $740.61 vs 20-day EMA $718.90 → comfortably above its moving average. Strong buy reading.
- Policy in force that week
The learning loop was not running that week.
NKEBull Put SpreadBullishTier 3 - Strikes
- $36.15 / $33.15 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-06-30
- Expiry
- 2026-07-03
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$55
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Nike is a classic beaten-down recovery name — down 44% from its 52-week high of $80.17. The recovery/beaten-down name rule is in effect: do not short near earnings inflections. Q4 FY2026 guidance was pre-announced as negative (revenue down 2–4%, 250 bps gross margin tariff hit, China –20%) — nearly all bad news is already embedded. CEO Elliott Hill bought $1M of NKE shares in June 2026 (insider conviction). The $40 short put strike places us 11% below current price and just past the 10% implied move, meaning our position only loses if Nike falls more than 11% beyond already-depressed levels. The Bull Put Spread collects premium on the thesis that the stock doesn't collapse from $45 to below $40 — not a bet on a rally.
- Risk: If Nike's FY2027 guidance disappoints further (additional China deterioration, tariff escalation in Vietnam/Indonesia), the stock could gap lower past $40. Historical NKE Q1 2026 earnings: –14.5%; Q3 2026: –9%. Maximum 1-contract exposure is $264 — appropriate for this uncertainty.
- Execution gate: Check the live implied move before entry. If the options market is pricing more than 15% implied move (meaning the $40 put is ATM or ITM relative to the implied range), reduce to No Trade.
- How it was picked
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
- Policy in force that week
The learning loop was not running that week.
STZBull Put SpreadBullishTier 2 - Strikes
- $127.65 / $121.27 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-06-30
- Expiry
- 2026-07-03
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Win+$95
Why this call
- What the analysis said
Constellation Brands is the most compelling setup this week. The SeerAI model shows –33% undervaluation (PE=11.9 vs Hist NormPE=17.9) and a +16.2% forecast ROR — clear bull signal. The one overhang has been tariff risk on Mexican beer imports, but STZ entered fiscal 2027 roughly 90% hedged on aluminum and 80% hedged across major currencies including the Mexican peso, which substantially neutralizes Q1 tariff impact. TD Cowen recently upgraded to Buy ($190 PT) calling FY27 beer guidance "overly conservative." With a 9% 1-year miss rate (excellent execution) and Modelo's continued dominance as the #1 selling beer brand in the US, the risk/reward favors the premium collection thesis.
- Risk: Any guidance reduction on beer volume (immigration-driven consumer behavior changes) or an unexpected miss on Q1 could push STZ below $130. Don't upsize — Seer score (below 50 quality threshold) is a reason for single-contract discipline.
- How it was picked
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
- Policy in force that week
The learning loop was not running that week.
TAPBull Call SpreadBullish - Strikes
- $43.22 / $39.29 modeled
- Entered
- 2026-06-29
- Expiry
- 2026-07-03
- Engine
- SeerForecast
Loss−$400
Why this call
- What the analysis said
STZ as beer-sector anchor; TAP (next report: Aug 4) is the cleanest sector derivative — no IV inflation
- How it was picked
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
- Policy in force that week
The learning loop was not running that week.