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Costco Wholesale (COST, Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Significantly overvalued

Costco Wholesale (COST, Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail) trades at a blended P/E of 44.0, about 40% above its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 9.5% and a PEG of 4.64. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 82% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 31.3 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $920.65 corresponds to about $656 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
44.0
Normal P/E
31.3
PEG
4.64
Fwd growth
9.5%
Div yield
0.6%
RSI (14)
63.6
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $947.92 at the 2026-10-08 close, 3.8% above the 20-day average ($913.63) and 1.8% above the 50-day ($931.57).
  • RSI (14) at 63.6.
  • 52-week range $846.27 to $1,092.58: the price is 13.2% below the high and 12.0% above the low.
  • At its last earnings report the options market priced a 3.5% move.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for COST is $1,057.94 across 35 analysts, 11.6% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Buy. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: significantly overvalued. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has been significantly overvalued since 2026-06-03.

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 50.0 to 44.0 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 30.1, with 0 rating changes over 37 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 50.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 48.7, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 48.7, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 48.7, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 48.7, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 46.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 47.3, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 47.3, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 45.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 45.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 45.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 46.5, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 46.5, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 46.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 46.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 47.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 46.9, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 46.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 46.5, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 47.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 47.1, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 45.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 46.3, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 46.3, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 45.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 46.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 46.1, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 44.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 44.6, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 44.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 44.0, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 43.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 43.4, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 44.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 44.1, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 44.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 44.0, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-10-0535.040.045.050.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 30.1
Significantly overvalued

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 50.0+66%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-19P/E 43.4+44%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 44.0+40%Significantly overvalued ← now
Show all 37 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 50.0+66%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 48.7+62%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 48.7+62%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 48.7+62%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 48.7+62%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 46.0+53%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 47.3+57%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 47.3+57%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 45.4+51%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 45.4+51%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 45.4+51%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 46.5+55%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 46.5+55%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 46.1+53%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 46.1+53%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 47.0+56%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 46.9+56%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-07P/E 46.6+55%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 46.5+55%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-14P/E 47.1+57%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 47.1+57%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-21P/E 45.6+52%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 46.3+54%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-27P/E 46.3+54%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 45.6+52%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 46.1+53%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 46.1+53%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-05P/E 44.6+48%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 44.6+48%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-12P/E 44.0+46%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 44.0+46%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-19P/E 43.4+44%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 43.4+44%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-26P/E 44.1+41%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 44.1+41%Significantly overvalued
2026-10-03P/E 44.0+40%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 44.0+40%Significantly overvalued ← now

Earnings moves: COST moved more than the options market implied in 0 of 1 recent tracked reports.

Frequently asked questions

Is Costco Wholesale stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 44.0 versus its historical normal P/E of 31.3, Costco Wholesale trades about 40% above its typical valuation, with a PEG of 4.64 on 9.5% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it significantly overvalued.

What is Costco Wholesale's fair value and PEG?

Costco Wholesale trades at a blended P/E of 44.0 against a historical normal P/E of 31.3, a PEG of 4.64, and a forward growth estimate of 9.5%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 31.3 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $920.65 corresponds to about $656 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Costco Wholesale changed?

tickerseer's rating has been significantly overvalued since 2026-06-03.

What is the analyst price target for Costco Wholesale?

The mean Wall Street price target for Costco Wholesale is $1,057.94 across 35 analysts, 11.6% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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