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Walmart (WMT, Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Significantly overvalued

Walmart (WMT, Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail) trades at a blended P/E of 37.2, about 92% above its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 10.3% and a PEG of 3.61. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 82% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 19.4 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $104.26 corresponds to about $54.20 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
37.2
Normal P/E
19.4
PEG
3.61
Fwd growth
10.3%
Div yield
0.9%
RSI (14)
59.3
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $110.56 at the 2026-10-08 close, 2.9% above the 20-day average ($107.40) and 2.0% above the 50-day ($108.41).
  • RSI (14) at 59.3.
  • 52-week range $99.77 to $133.88: the price is 17.4% below the high and 10.8% above the low.
  • At its last earnings report the options market priced a 4.6% move.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for WMT is $126.78 across 40 analysts, 14.7% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Buy. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: significantly overvalued. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating has been significantly overvalued since 2026-06-03.

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 42.5 to 37.2 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 19.4, with 0 rating changes over 37 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 42.5, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 43.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 43.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 43.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 43.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 39.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 40.7, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 40.7, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 41.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 41.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 41.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 41.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 41.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 39.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 39.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 40.2, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 40.2, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 40.5, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 40.4, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 41.8, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 41.6, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 37.5, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 37.4, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 37.4, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 37.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 37.1, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 37.1, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 38.5, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 38.5, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 38.5, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 38.5, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 38.2, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 38.2, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 38.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 38.6, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 37.2, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 37.2, Significantly overvalued, recorded live 2026-10-0520.030.040.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 19.4
Significantly overvalued

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 42.5+119%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 43.6+125%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 37.0+91%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 37.2+92%Significantly overvalued ← now
Show all 37 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 42.5+119%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 43.6+125%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 43.6+125%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 43.6+125%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 43.6+125%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 39.6+104%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 40.7+110%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 40.7+110%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 41.4+114%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 41.4+114%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 41.4+114%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 41.4+114%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 41.4+114%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 39.6+105%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 39.6+105%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 40.2+108%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 40.2+108%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-07P/E 40.5+109%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 40.4+109%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-14P/E 41.8+116%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 41.6+115%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-21P/E 37.5+93%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 37.4+93%Significantly overvalued
2026-08-27P/E 37.4+93%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 37.0+91%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 37.1+92%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 37.1+92%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-05P/E 38.5+99%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 38.5+99%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-12P/E 38.5+99%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 38.5+99%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-19P/E 38.2+97%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 38.2+97%Significantly overvalued
2026-09-26P/E 38.6+99%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 38.6+99%Significantly overvalued
2026-10-03P/E 37.2+92%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 37.2+92%Significantly overvalued ← now

Earnings moves: WMT moved more than the options market implied in 1 of 1 recent tracked reports.

Frequently asked questions

Is Walmart stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 37.2 versus its historical normal P/E of 19.4, Walmart trades about 92% above its typical valuation, with a PEG of 3.61 on 10.3% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it significantly overvalued.

What is Walmart's fair value and PEG?

Walmart trades at a blended P/E of 37.2 against a historical normal P/E of 19.4, a PEG of 3.61, and a forward growth estimate of 10.3%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 19.4 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $104.26 corresponds to about $54.20 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Walmart changed?

tickerseer's rating has been significantly overvalued since 2026-06-03.

What is the analyst price target for Walmart?

The mean Wall Street price target for Walmart is $126.78 across 40 analysts, 14.7% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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