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Starbucks (SBUX, Restaurants) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Weak on forward returns

Starbucks (SBUX, Restaurants) trades at a blended P/E of 36.0, about 17% above its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of 18.4% and a PEG of 1.96. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 55% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 30.7 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $94.71 corresponds to about $80.80 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
36.0
Normal P/E
30.7
PEG
1.96
Fwd growth
18.4%
Div yield
2.6%
RSI (14)
34.2
Neutral
Technical context
  • Price $93.21 at the 2026-10-08 close, 2.3% below the 20-day average ($95.42) and 8.1% below the 50-day ($101.43).
  • RSI (14) at 34.2.
  • 52-week range $76.51 to $108.49: the price is 14.1% below the high and 21.8% above the low.
  • At its last earnings report the options market priced a 6% move.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for SBUX is $111.57 across 30 analysts, 19.7% above the current price. The average analyst rating is Buy. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: weak on forward returns. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating moved from significantly overvalued (2026-06-03) to weak on forward returns (2026-10-05).

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 43.9 to 36.0 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 30.7, with 3 rating changes over 37 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 43.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 41.4, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 41.4, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 41.4, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 41.4, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 44.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 45.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 45.0, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 45.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 45.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 45.6, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 45.3, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 45.3, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 43.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 43.9, Significantly overvalued, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 41.8, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 41.5, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 41.3, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 41.4, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 42.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 42.1, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 40.5, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 41.7, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 41.7, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 41.7, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 41.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 41.9, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 40.4, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 40.4, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 37.9, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 37.9, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 36.7, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 36.7, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 36.2, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 36.2, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 36.0, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 36.0, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-0535.040.045.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 30.7
Trading above its usual valuationWeak on forward returnsSignificantly overvaluedPoor on forward returnsLarger dot: a stronger reading

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, every week the rating moved, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 43.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 41.4+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 44.6+45%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 45.6+49%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-09-19P/E 36.7+19%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-03P/E 36.0+17%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 36.0+17%Weak on forward returns ← now
Show all 37 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 43.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 41.4+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 41.4+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 41.4+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 41.4+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 44.6+45%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 45.0+47%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 45.0+47%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 45.6+49%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 45.6+49%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 45.6+49%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 45.3+48%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 45.3+48%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 43.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 43.9+43%Significantly overvalued (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 41.8+36%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 41.5+35%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-07P/E 41.3+35%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 41.4+35%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-14P/E 42.5+38%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 42.1+37%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-21P/E 40.5+32%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 41.7+36%Poor on forward returns
2026-08-27P/E 41.7+36%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 41.7+36%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 41.9+36%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 41.9+36%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 40.4+32%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 40.4+32%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-12P/E 37.9+24%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 37.9+24%Poor on forward returns
2026-09-19P/E 36.7+19%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 36.7+19%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-26P/E 36.2+18%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 36.2+18%Weak on forward returns
2026-10-03P/E 36.0+17%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 36.0+17%Weak on forward returns ← now

Earnings moves: SBUX moved more than the options market implied in 0 of 1 recent tracked reports.

Frequently asked questions

Is Starbucks stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 36.0 versus its historical normal P/E of 30.7, Starbucks trades about 17% above its typical valuation, with a PEG of 1.96 on 18.4% forward growth. tickerseer currently rates it weak on forward returns.

What is Starbucks's fair value and PEG?

Starbucks trades at a blended P/E of 36.0 against a historical normal P/E of 30.7, a PEG of 1.96, and a forward growth estimate of 18.4%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 30.7 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $94.71 corresponds to about $80.80 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Starbucks changed?

tickerseer's rating moved from significantly overvalued (2026-06-03) to weak on forward returns (2026-10-05).

What is the analyst price target for Starbucks?

The mean Wall Street price target for Starbucks is $111.57 across 30 analysts, 19.7% above the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Restaurants. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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