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Valero Energy (VLO, Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing) Stock Valuation & Fair Value Poor on forward returns

Valero Energy (VLO, Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing) trades at a blended P/E of 10.0, about 5% below its historical normal valuation, with a forward growth estimate of -26.9%. Analysts' one-year estimates have been hit 9% of the time. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 10.6 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $406.30 corresponds to about $430 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

DATA AS OF 2026-10-05
Blended P/E
10.0
Normal P/E
10.6
PEG
—
Fwd growth
-26.9%
Div yield
1.2%
RSI (14)
77.2
Overbought
Technical context
  • Price $443.80 at the 2026-10-08 close, 10.9% above the 20-day average ($400.09) and 21.6% above the 50-day ($365.04).
  • RSI (14) at 77.2.
  • 52-week range $153.14 to $443.80: the price is at the high and 189.8% above the low.

The Street vs SeerForecast

Wall Street's mean price target for VLO is $367.63 across 19 analysts, 17.2% below the current price. The average analyst rating is Buy. Our SeerForecast read of the same stock, formed without analyst targets: poor on forward returns. When the two disagree, start your digging there.

Valuation flags

Verdict history

tickerseer's rating moved from trading above its usual valuation (2026-06-03) to poor on forward returns (2026-10-05).

Blended P/E and rating by weekBlended P/E moved from 14.0 to 10.0 between 2026-06-03 and 2026-10-02, against a normal P/E of 10.6, with 1 rating change over 37 recorded weeks.2026-06-03: P/E 14.0, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-032026-06-10: P/E 14.3, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-102026-06-12: P/E 14.3, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-142026-06-16: P/E 14.3, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-162026-06-18: P/E 14.3, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-06-212026-07-02: P/E 13.1, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-022026-07-06: P/E 13.1, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-062026-07-09: P/E 13.1, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-092026-07-10: P/E 13.2, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-122026-07-13: P/E 13.2, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-132026-07-14: P/E 13.2, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-142026-07-20: P/E 13.9, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-202026-07-22: P/E 13.9, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-222026-07-24: P/E 12.9, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-252026-07-27: P/E 12.9, Trading above its usual valuation, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-272026-07-31: P/E 11.6, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-07-312026-07-31: P/E 11.7, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-032026-08-07: P/E 10.3, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-072026-08-07: P/E 10.1, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-102026-08-14: P/E 11.3, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-142026-08-14: P/E 11.2, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-172026-08-21: P/E 11.0, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-212026-08-21: P/E 11.2, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-242026-08-27: P/E 11.2, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-272026-08-28: P/E 10.9, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-282026-08-28: P/E 11.1, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-08-302026-08-28: P/E 11.1, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-08-312026-09-04: P/E 11.4, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-052026-09-04: P/E 11.4, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-072026-09-11: P/E 10.9, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-122026-09-11: P/E 10.9, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-142026-09-18: P/E 11.1, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-192026-09-18: P/E 11.1, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-212026-09-25: P/E 9.8, Weak on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-09-262026-09-25: P/E 9.8, Weak on forward returns, recorded live 2026-09-282026-10-02: P/E 10.0, Poor on forward returns, recalculated for the week of 2026-10-032026-10-02: P/E 10.0, Poor on forward returns, recorded live 2026-10-0510.012.014.0Jun 3Jul 3Aug 2Sep 2Oct 2Normal P/E 10.6
Trading above its usual valuationWeak on forward returnsPoor on forward returnsLarger dot: a stronger reading

Not every point was recorded live. Points marked recalculated apply today's valuation rules to the metrics tickerseer archived that week.

Selected weeks: the first, the latest, every week the rating moved, and the cheapest and dearest.

WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 14.0+33%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 14.3+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-09-26P/E 9.8-7%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-03P/E 10.0-5%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 10.0-5%Poor on forward returns ← now
Show all 37 weeks
WeekBlended P/EPremium to normal P/ERating
2026-06-03P/E 14.0+33%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-10P/E 14.3+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-14P/E 14.3+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-16P/E 14.3+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-06-21P/E 14.3+35%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-02P/E 13.1+24%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-06P/E 13.1+24%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-09P/E 13.1+24%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-12P/E 13.2+25%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-13P/E 13.2+25%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-14P/E 13.2+25%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-20P/E 13.9+32%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-22P/E 13.9+32%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-25P/E 12.9+22%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-27P/E 12.9+22%Trading above its usual valuation (recalculated)
2026-07-31P/E 11.6+10%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-03P/E 11.7+10%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-07P/E 10.3-3%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-10P/E 10.1-4%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-14P/E 11.3+7%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-17P/E 11.2+6%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-21P/E 11.0+4%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-24P/E 11.2+6%Weak on forward returns
2026-08-27P/E 11.2+6%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-28P/E 10.9+4%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-30P/E 11.1+5%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-08-31P/E 11.1+5%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-05P/E 11.4+8%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-07P/E 11.4+8%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-12P/E 10.9+3%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-14P/E 10.9+3%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-19P/E 11.1+5%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-21P/E 11.1+5%Weak on forward returns
2026-09-26P/E 9.8-7%Weak on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-09-28P/E 9.8-7%Weak on forward returns
2026-10-03P/E 10.0-5%Poor on forward returns (recalculated)
2026-10-05P/E 10.0-5%Poor on forward returns ← now

Frequently asked questions

Is Valero Energy stock overvalued?

At a blended P/E of 10.0 versus its historical normal P/E of 10.6, Valero Energy trades about 5% below its typical valuation. tickerseer currently rates it poor on forward returns.

What is Valero Energy's fair value and PEG?

Valero Energy trades at a blended P/E of 10.0 against a historical normal P/E of 10.6, a forward growth estimate of -26.9%. Priced at its historical normal P/E of 10.6 on the same blended earnings, the 2026-10-02 close of $406.30 corresponds to about $430 a share. This is a valuation reference, not a price target.

Has tickerseer's rating of Valero Energy changed?

tickerseer's rating moved from trading above its usual valuation (2026-06-03) to poor on forward returns (2026-10-05).

What is the analyst price target for Valero Energy?

The mean Wall Street price target for Valero Energy is $367.63 across 19 analysts, 17.2% below the current price. tickerseer's SeerForecast verdict is formed independently of analyst targets.

Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Create a free account to see the full analysis: the SeerAI score, its five quality sub-scores, valuation history, and the AI research note. Options setups and metric history are part of the paid plans.

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