Settled options ideas entered during this week, scored against the stock's actual close around expiration. Every call is here, win or loss. Open Why this call under any of them to read how it was picked and, where it was recorded, what the analysis said at the time.
| Index | Price | 20-day MA | Above MA? | |-------|-------|-----------|-----------| | SPY | 751.71 | 741.76 | Yes | | QQQ | 723.28 | 720.70 | Yes |
3 lessons were active that week.
Reasoning withheld for this row. It can restate the same strikes this receipt does not publish.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Undervalued −22.8% vs NormPE (11.81 vs 15.29), ROR +26.34%, Seer score. Global auto-safety-systems demand is holding (Q2 consensus EPS $2.43 vs $2.21 YoY, revenue $2.76B), and Autoliv just signed a fresh Great Wall Motor supply deal adding a China/EV growth angle on top of the existing thesis. Analyst PT $132.18 (+7.7% upside), 12 Buy / 6 Hold / 0 Sell — no sell-side bears. Elevated near-dated IV suggests a bigger-than-typical move (~5–7% estimated).
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Not in the local dataset (No SeerAI data) — the ticker search doesn't return it, but it's a real, liquid security. ASML already raised FY2026 sales guidance to €36–40B on AI-driven EUV/High-NA lithography demand and guided Q2 sales €8.4–9.0B at 51–52% gross margin; analyst rating is essentially all Strong Buy, no meaningful Hold/Sell. But the stock is up ~70% YTD and more than doubled over the past year, which has compressed the gap to the mean PT to just +1.9% — much of the good news is already priced in, and options IV is elevated (~63%, 87th percentile) pricing a 6–8% expected move. Q2 bookings are the swing factor for whether the AI capex cycle is sustainable; China export exposure is a live risk (China was 33% of 2025 sales, seen dropping to ~20% in 2026).
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Cheapest of the money-center banks vs its own history — PE 14.17 vs NormPE 17.99 (−21.2% undervalued), ROR +19.18%, growth +14.76%. Consensus looks for ~+25% YoY EPS on NII expansion. Undervaluation + positive ROR + sector tailwind is the textbook Bull Put setup: collect premium below support rather than pay for upside into elevated earnings IV.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Strongest forecast return of the week — ROR +39.31%, growth +21.48% — with consensus ~+35% YoY EPS as the restructuring/re-rating story compounds. PE 15.59 sits above the depressed NormPE 12.19, so it screens "overvalued," but that reflects Citi's historically cheap multiple re-rating upward, which the ROR confirms. The 36% 1Y miss is the real risk — Citi's execution has been streaky — so this is a size-caveated Tier 2, premium-collect only.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Fastenal is the week's clearest Seer-bear on the numbers — PE 41.62 vs NormPE 30.16 (+38% overvalued), ROR −23.58%, and Wall Street is cold (mean PT $47.08 ≈ +1.8% upside, 3 strong sells, only 5 buys of 16). But it is a Seer-88, 0%-miss quality compounder, and the macro gate forbids shorting on valuation alone with both indices above their 20-day MA. Take this only if there is an explicit catalyst — a soft daily-sales growth trend or a cautious FY guide on the call. Absent that, skip. Far-OTM, small size, defined risk.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
ROR +41.88% is one of the strongest of the week, but the valuation is genuinely rich (PE 17.57 vs NormPE 12.14, +44.7% overvalued) and the stock has already re-rated up hard — much of that "rich" multiple is sentiment, not yet earnings-confirmed. EPS consensus $0.98 (+8.9% YoY). Rating skews bullish (15 Buy / 1 Moderate Buy / 6 Hold of 22), with fresh target hikes (UBS to $65, Truist to $60) even as one blended-consensus read shows the mean PT roughly flat to spot — a genuinely mixed signal underneath the strong headline ROR.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
The sector bellwether — beats Wall Street EPS in 14 of the last 16 quarters, consensus ~$5.49 (+~10% YoY). Valuation is full (PE 15.78 vs NormPE 12.59, +25% overval) and ROR is only +7.82%, so there is no cheap-upside edge; the trade is a pure "JPM doesn't collapse" premium collect below support, not a directional bull bet. Implied move ~3.5–4.7% (roughly 2× its ~2.4% average post-print move — options are pricing extra risk). Tier 3, smallest of the bank sleeve.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Best Seer score of the entire week (92) and the single biggest event on the calendar. The dataset's NormPE (90.36) looks like a huge undervaluation signal, but it is almost certainly a stale, unadjusted pre-split figure — treat it as a data artifact, not a real read (see Valuation Snapshot note). The real forecast ROR is only +4.93% — mild, not a strong directional edge. Bull case: ad-tier now exceeds 250M MAUs and >60% of new signups, ad revenue tracking to ~$3B FY26. Bear-side friction: Q2 operating-margin guide of 32.6% is down from 34.1% YoY, and Netflix no longer discloses subscriber counts, removing the usual anchor to check engagement claims against. Implied move is large (7–10%, Bloomberg ~7.3%, weekly-straddle math ~10%) — size the short put well beyond it given Netflix's history of outsized earnings moves, and keep this Tier 3 given the mild ROR doesn't justify a bigger bet despite the Seer quality.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Reports the morning after the money-center wave (WFC/BAC/C/JPM/GS, Tue BO); read-through so far has been constructive on NII resilience and capital-markets strength, and consensus estimates $4.41 EPS / $6.39B revenue. PE 14.29 vs NormPE 12.70 (+12.5% overvalued) is rich but not stretched, and ROR +16.92% is solid. Analysts have moved targets up hard in the past two weeks (UBS $263→$288, Evercore $255→$280, Citi $255→$280, JPM $238→$264.50) for ~7–11% upside, rating skewed Buy (28% Strong Buy, 50% Buy). Implied move ~3.3%.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Undervalued −13.4% vs NormPE (12.30 vs 14.21), ROR +24.41% — one of the stronger bull setups of the whole week, same profile as WFC/BAC on Tuesday (undervalued + strong forecast return). Citi just downgraded to Neutral (target cut to $54 from $63) on the bank's 5-year NII growth lagging the industry (1.6% annualized), but the print itself is favored to beat (ESP +0.23%) and TFC's trailing 8-quarter average Day-0 move is a modest ~2.95% — banks rarely gap hard on earnings absent a credit surprise, which fits a premium-collect Bull Put Spread better than a directional call.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
The single highest forecast ROR of the entire week (+56.32%), Seer score. United slashed FY2026 EPS guidance from $12–14 to $7–11 earlier this year on a fuel-cost spike, which is why the trailing P/E (11.89) looks "overvalued" vs. NormPE (9.73, +22.2%) — but that trailing multiple predates the current setup. Since the cut, United announced one of the industry's largest 2026 capacity reductions (~5%) to tighten supply, and management said it's "increasingly bullish" it can price through the fuel increase via premium-cabin and loyalty revenue growing faster than mainline. Consensus has moved fast and hard in the bull direction in just the last two weeks (TD Cowen $150→$176, Goldman $131→$162, BMO $130→$157.50, Morgan Stanley $182→$185), rating 34 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell, ~10–20%+ upside to the mean target. 4-quarter beat streak averaging +4.95%. Implied move ~3% — the short put at 5–6% OTM sits comfortably beyond it.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
UnitedHealth is Seer-unscored (SeerAI doesn't score insurers) and headline valuation looks rich (PE 24.44 vs NormPE 17.65, +38.5% overvalued, ROR −0.38% flat), but the thesis is turning, not deteriorating: a special master ruled the DOJ failed to prove its $2B Medicare Advantage overpayment claim, and Morgan Stanley just raised its target to $468 calling UNH a "Top Pick," citing strong Optum Health execution. Rating is Strong Buy (19 Buy / 3 Hold / 1 Sell). The 2025 medical-cost-trend crisis narrative looks past its worst point into this print, though the broader MA billing probe is technically still open — treat this as a name whose bear case is fading, not fully resolved. Implied move ~6.1%.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Not recorded for this week.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Best risk-adjusted bull of the week. PE 12.89 vs NormPE 14.30 = −9.9% undervalued, ROR +22.87%, growth +13.86%. Wells rides the post-asset-cap normalization tailwind and the sector's accelerating loan growth. Implied move ~4.5%; the short put at 5–6% OTM sits just beyond the expected move so the spread profits if WFC merely holds support. 27% 1Y miss is the only caveat → keep to Tier 2 sizing.
The rule-based screen was not running that week.
3 lessons were active that week. None applied to this play.
Strikes appear only after a call settles, and each carries the label it earned. Modeled means reconstructed from the play’s stated sizing rules, or from the house methodology’s default offsets where the play stated none. Listed means our daily re-pricing job read the option chain that morning and picked a strike the chain actually lists, so the number names a contract that existed. Neither is a fill: we do not record fills, and no label here claims one. Older rows without enough stored detail to reconstruct show —.
This ledger shows the outcome of every options idea our SeerForecast engine has published: wins and losses alike, with none removed. Outcomes are scored mechanically against the stock's actual close around expiration. Past results do not predict future performance, and this ledger is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each settled call's decision receipt is on its week's page: how it was picked, the policy in force, and the analysis's own reasoning where it was recorded. The current week's analysis is part of the paid product.