Healthcare surges as rising yields rattle tech stocks

The week ahead centers on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote, set for Friday morning at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium running August 27 through 29, less than three weeks before the September 16 FOMC decision. Markets will parse his remarks closely: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spent last week publicly lobbying for a 50-basis-point rate cut and moved to roughly double the size of Treasury's long-bond buyback program in an effort to hold down yields, an unusual public push against an ostensibly independent Fed. That tension sits directly behind last week's sector rotation. A run-up in long-end Treasury yields pressured richly valued growth names, sending the Nasdaq-100 down 2.41% and Information Technology (XLK) down 3.53%, while Health Care (XLV) surged 4.33% on biotech-specific catalysts and Energy (XLE) added 2.79% as the ongoing Strait of Hormuz standoff kept oil prices supported.

This week adds a second major catalyst on top of the Fed story: Wednesday brings the second estimate of second-quarter GDP alongside Nvidia's earnings after the close, the highest-profile report in a week that also includes Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Synopsys. Nvidia's results will test whether the AI capital-spending narrative can still support tech valuations after a week in which the sector was the market's weakest link. A soft print paired with a hawkish-leaning Warsh speech could extend the rotation already underway; a strong beat alongside dovish signals from Jackson Hole could just as easily reverse it. With no CPI, PPI, or retail sales data due this week, Wednesday's GDP release and Friday's Warsh speech are the two events most likely to move rates, and with them the growth-versus-defensive trade, before month-end.

Three of eleven S&P sectors finished last week higher, and the pattern was telling: Health Care (XLV) led with a 4.33% gain, Energy (XLE) added 2.79%, and Materials (XLB) rose 1.90%, while Information Technology (XLK), Utilities (XLU), and Industrials (XLI) each fell more than 3%. The healthcare rally was driven by company-specific catalysts, including a strong move in Moderna (MRNA) and gains in Merck (MRK) tied to oncology trial results. The breadth of the move, with both cap-weighted and equal-weighted healthcare indexes touching fresh highs, suggests investors are also rotating into a sector that had lagged for much of the year. This week's earnings calendar offers a read on whether that defensive posture extends beyond healthcare and energy: Dollar General (DG) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) report Thursday, both bellwethers for how budget-conscious and discretionary consumers are holding up heading into the fall. If value and defensive names keep outperforming while growth stays pressured by bond yields, that would mark a meaningful shift from the mega-cap AI leadership that has defined this market for much of 2026.

The most consequential earnings of the week arrive after Wednesday's close, when Nvidia (NVDA) reports alongside Salesforce (CRM) and CrowdStrike (CRWD), with Marvell (MRVL) following Thursday alongside Autodesk and Workday. Nvidia's report matters most: the company has become the market's proxy for whether hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending keeps compounding, and its results land in the same week the sector it anchors just posted its worst weekly showing among all eleven S&P sectors. Information Technology (XLK) fell 3.53% last week as the Nasdaq-100 slid 2.41%, with rising long-end Treasury yields compressing the multiples investors are willing to pay for future AI-driven growth. A strong beat and confident guidance from Nvidia would help settle nerves about capital spending durability heading into year-end budget cycles. A disappointing print, especially paired with hawkish signals out of Jackson Hole on Friday, could extend the growth-to-value rotation already visible in last week's sector performance. Salesforce and CrowdStrike results the same day add a software-spending read-through, while Marvell's numbers Thursday offer another data point on custom AI silicon demand outside Nvidia's own supply chain.

Hard assets had a strong week across the board: gold rose 6.8% and is up 16.0% over the past month, silver gained 4.6% and is up 17.9% over the month, natural gas jumped 7.1%, and crude oil (WTI) added 1.3%. The common threads are a weaker dollar tied to growing conviction that the Fed will cut rates, potentially by 50 basis points, at its September 16 meeting, and an unresolved standoff around the Strait of Hormuz that has kept a geopolitical premium in oil markets since fighting between the US and Iran began earlier this year. Energy (XLE) was the week's second-best-performing sector at 2.79%, alongside broader strength in Materials (XLB) at 1.90%. For investors, the setup worth watching is whether gold and silver's rally is purely a rate-cut and dollar story or whether it also reflects safe-haven demand tied to the Iran conflict, since the two drivers argue for different follow-through if diplomatic or Fed developments break one way or the other. Energy producers such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and gold miners such as Newmont (NEM) are among the most direct ways this theme shows up in individual equities, alongside the commodities themselves.

This week's macro calendar is lighter on inflation data than usual, with no CPI, PPI, or retail sales releases since the July prints for all three already came out earlier in August. Tuesday brings the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Wednesday delivers the second estimate of second-quarter GDP alongside earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Synopsys (SNPS), and Agilent (A). The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium runs Thursday through Saturday, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote as chair Friday morning, less than three weeks ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision. Earlier in the week, Intuit (INTU), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), and Five Below (FIVE) report Tuesday, while Thursday brings Marvell (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Dollar General (DG), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), and Affirm (AFRM).